Restaurant Report 2025
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Welcome to the Restaurant Report 2025, which provides a snapshot of the UK’s diverse eating out scene by looking at the top 100 restaurants groups.
In this report we rank 100 restaurants based on their number of sites as well as look at the UK dining sector as a whole, the pressures it has faced, and the key trends and activity over the past 12 months.
There is little change at the top of the list, with Wagamama the only new entrant within the top 10, but change is more apparent later on thanks to the continued contraction of some brands and growth in others.
Some of the biggest growth over the past year has been in the fried chicken sector, with Popeyes, Wingstop and Slim Chickens all significantly boosting their estates over the past 12 months. Loungers also continues to expand, opening more than one site a month under its Lounge brand.
US burger brand Wendy’s also doubled its estate this year, albeit from a smaller base than some of its competitors.
There have been a number of casualties over the past 12 months, most notably TGI Fridays, which saw its estate significantly reduced when parent company Hostmore went into administration, Wildwood, which shuttered a significant number of sites, and D&D London, which has closed restaurants in London and across the country.
Methodology
The Restaurant Report is a list of the UK’s top 100 restaurant brands as ranked by number of sites. In most cases it ranks single brands rather than companies, although where a group comprises numerous different brands as part of its overall approach (JKS and San Carlo, for example) these are counted together to reflect their single ownership. Sites that are delivery only or dark kitchens are not counted. Information is sourced directly from the companies where possible and their websites and is correct as of October 2024.
Market Analysis
Market Analysis
Overview
The UK’s eating out sector has been dogged by challenges over the past few years, and the coming 12 months are unlikely to offer much in the form of relief for operators struggling to come to terms with this new normal.
Falling food inflation has helped the sector over the past year, but rising wage costs are creating bumps in the road for operators, meaning that the prospect of food and drink prices starting to increase is very real.
Overall, the UK restaurant market faces modest growth amid this challenging landscape and is forecast to grow by 1.3% in 2024 to reach a total value of £19bn, according to Lumina Intelligence’s latest UK Restaurant Market Report.
This growth, according to Lumina, is set to lag both inflation and the broader eating-out market, which is projected to expand by 2.6%.
Independent restaurants in particular have been among those hardest hit by the current trading environment, with numerousf independent restaurants in London and across the UK having closed their doors over the past 12 months citing challenging conditions as a reason for the closure. These include high-profile closures such as Glynn Purnell’s flagship Birmingham restaurant, which closed after 17 years of trading citing a combination of economic pressures and the ongoing challenges faced by the hospitality industry, Jackson Boxer’s Orasay, Leroy in Shoreditch, Simon Wood’s eponymous Manchester restaurant, and Simon Rimmer’s two Greens restaurants in Sale and Didsbury.
This is something Lumina points to in it report, stating that independent restaurants, which make up 83% of the market by outlets, are experiencing notable pressures. It forecasts that the total market is expected to see a net closure of six restaurants every week in 2024, leading to a 1.2% decline in sites.
The threat of closure remains real for struggling operators despite recent figures that show a sharp drop in accommodation and food services insolvencies in October 2024.
According to Government statistics, hospitality insolvencies recorded in October stood at 253, the lowest monthly level in two years. By contrast, some 332 insolvencies were recorded across the sector in October 2023. In addition, insolvencies in the sector recorded another month-on-month decrease, falling from 261 in September.
However, the industry is bracing for a wave of post-Budget headwinds with employment costs increasing and additional compliance changes under the Employment Rights Bill that could see a reversal in the movement of the numbers. "For vulnerable businesses already struggling to make ends meet, this could well be a step too far and we expect to see an uptick in insolvencies across the industry next year as a result,” says Saxon Moseley, partner and head of leisure and hospitality at RSM UK.
“This backdrop will create consolidation opportunities for operators looking to strengthen market position through strategic acquisitions and bring efficiencies to respond to the budget measures.
“In addition, as further pressure is applied, distress deals will drive a further wave of consolidation in 2025.”
Market Analysis
Inflation
High inflation in the hospitality sector was an issue that dogged operators in 2022 and 2023 but there has been reason for cheer more recently as prices have fallen steadily.
Recent data from the Foodservice Price Index report from Prestige Purchasing and CGA by NIQ shows that foodservice inflation fell to 2.2% in October 2024, marking the 16th consecutive month of decline. It also shows that October recorded month-on-month deflation of -0.4%, with prices falling in six of the Index’s 10 categories.
Vegetables and sugar, jam, syrups and chocolate continued to experience the highest inflation, according to the report, with fish the only category to experience deflation.
Although this short-term trend is positive, the Government’s Autumn Budget, which introduced a rise in National Insurance Contribution for employers from 13.8% to 15%, has introduced significant uncertainty into the outlook for foodservice prices in 2025.
If additional wage and National Insurance costs are passed up the supply chain in full, there is a fear that food and drink inflation could rise sharply again this year.
The Foodservice Price Index report projects that the Budget measures will add 2.3% to the previously forecasted rate of inflation.
“While the continued easing of year-on-year inflation is encouraging, the potential impact of the Autumn Budget is a serious concern,” says Shaun Allen, CEO at Prestige Purchasing. “The foodservice sector is still grappling with ongoing volatility, and the possibility of further significant price increases in 2025 adds another layer of complexity.
A rise in UK inflation in November 2024 up from 2.3% to 2.6%, driven by the rising cost of petrol, groceries, and an increase in tobacco duty in the Autumn Budget, will also be of concern to operators.
“The continued increase in inflation is concerning, and inevitably makes day-to-day life harder for businesses and consumers,” says Kate Nicholls, chief executive of trade body UKHospitality.
“Combined with lacklustre growth figures, it makes for a troubling economic picture.”
Market Analysis
QSR growth
While independents have been the main casualties in the UK food and drink sector over the past few years, QSR brands have fared much better thanks to their competitive pricing and strong expansion from some of the sector’s key players.
Lumina Intelligence predicts that the UK QSR market will grow value by 3.3% in 2024, reaching £17bn and outpacing growth in the restaurant market as a whole.
Growth in QSR is being driven primarily by the success of the branded contemporary fast-food segment, underpinned by continued physical expansion from strong players such as Five Guys, Wingstop, Popeyes, and Slim Chickens.
Leading QSR brands are forecast to grow turnover by 2.9% in 2024, driven by both physical and digital expansion.
The fried chicken sector, in particular, is helping drive overall growth in the QSR sector. In June 2024 chicken-focused QSR brand Wingstop was named as the fastest growing restaurant group in the UK by The Sunday Times 100 for the second year in a row.
Wingstop UK completed what it says is a year of record expansion, with 15 new openings planned by the end of 2024 and now operates 58 sites across the UK. Moreover, the company has a goal of reaching 200 locations within the next five years.
In its most recent financial year, Wingstop UK reported a pre-tax profit of £3.5m up from a £2m loss the year before. The group's revenue increased by 122% to £84.7m in the year to 31 March 2024, up from £38.2m in 2023.
Slim Chickens and Popeyes are other chicken brands that have grown their estates over the past 12 months. Louisiana-founded fried chicken brand Popeyes recently celebrated its 50-site milestone in 2024, doubling its footprint, and looks set to continue to grow its estate in 2025 and beyond. Slim Chickens, meanwhile, grew from 43 UK sites in 2023 to 69 at the end of 2024, marking one of the biggest percentage increases in site numbers on the 100 list.
The sector is showing no signs of slowing, either. New entrant Dave’s Hot Chicken made its UK debut at the trail-end of last year having been brought to these shores by Azzurri Group, the business behind the ASK Italian, Zizzi and Coco di Mama brands. The long queues since launch auger well for the brand, with Azzurri Group saying that it hopes to open three or four more sites in 2025 and is aiming to open 60 UK Dave’s Hot Chicken restaurants in the coming years.
Market Analysis
The spin-off brand
One characteristic of the casual dining sector over the past couple of years has been the reemergence of the spin-off brand, which has seen major players move into slightly new territory, often in an attempt to target a different demographic or expand into new locations.
Recent examples include Brightside, Loungers’ roadside dining brand designed to fill the void left by the demise of Little Chef and Happy Eater. The company now operates four roadside diners, three in the south west and one near Peterborough and believes there is significant scope to open many more in a sector that, in its prime, boasted more than 500 venues across the UK.
Dishoom also sees growth potential of Permit Room, its drinks-led sister brand that it launched in Brighton at the end of 2023. The Indian restaurant group opened two further Permit Rooms in 2024, in Oxford and Cambridge, and sees the brand as a way of the company having a presence in cities that might not be able to sustain a full-scale Dishoom.
Even more recent examples of spin-offs and sister brands show that operators see mileage in being more flexible and creative with their offer. Pizza Express, for example, has just opened the first site under its new grab and go concept, Pizza Express Pod, at a Tesco Extra in Southampton. The group describes the pod, which is located in a shipping container outside the supermarket’s main entrance, as one of its growth drivers as it continues to expand both its retail range and international presence.
Then there’s Super Club Roma, a new pizza brand from Franco Manco owner The Fulham Shore, which has just opened in London’s Westfield Stratford. Led by Marcel Khan, who was appointed CEO of The Fulham Shore a year ago, the brand serves an eight-strong menu of thin Roman-style pizzas alongside a short selection of fritti and sides such as meatballs with parmesan and basil; spicy fried olives; and cacio e pepe chips.
The new concept comes during a time of increased activity in the pizza space, particularly in brands offering alternatives to the now ubiquitous Neapolitan-style pizza, including Lenny’s Apizza, which serves New Haven style pizza at The Bedford Tavern in London’s Finsbury Park, Crisp Pizza in Hammersmith, and Alley Cats, which serves New York style 14-inch pizzas.
Pizza player Pizza Pilgrims, meanwhile, is looking to relaunch its New York pizza-by-the-slice concept Slice in the wake of a surge in popularity for New York style pizzas in the UK. The group first established Slice during the pandemic as a pop-up on London’s South Bank and went on to launch a permanent site under the brand in Finsbury Park in the summer of 2021, which served pizza by the 12-inch slice or by the metre.
The practice is also happening in the burger sector. Honest Burgers has just launched Smash + Grab, a new smashed burger concept that it says will allow it to expand into spaces it was previously unable to, including transport hubs. Plans for the new QSR brand have been fuelled by the success of Honest Burgers' lighter and lower priced smashed burger and comes amid a growing consumer appetite for smash burgers more generally.
Even the giants of the fast-food world are getting in on the act, albeit on the other side of the pond at present. McDonald’s led the way with CosMc’s, a retro brand launched in Bolingbrook, Illinois, that has drinks at its core and which sees it come up against rivals such as Starbucks as well as fast food brands. At the end of last year KFC unveiled its spin-off – Saucy. The new brand, launched in Orlando, Florida, serves a menu centred on sauces and fried chicken tenders.
The wider Saucy food menu includes a selection of sandwiches, rolls, sides and desserts such as a spicy queso crunch sandwich; toasted Hawaiian rolls; and chocolate mousse cake. There will also be a wide range of new drinks available including a hot honey watermelon refresher; peach-mango lemonade freeze; and tropical black tea.
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